I said it in the offseason, and I still firmly believe this. The Brewers closer of the future is on their roster now. While many people point to and speculate the possibility of the Dave Bush closing games, I don't think he's a good fit.Bush is far too susceptible to the big inning, and most times it occurs early. How many times have we seen Dave Bush start a game and by the time the Brewers got to bat they were already trailing? You can't convert a guy who does that into a closers role. A further examination of Dave Bush's career splits proves this.
Bush has by far given up the most runs in his career during innings 1-3. When you break that down by inning his most damage was done in the first inning (28 runs surrendered as opposed to 12 in the second inning, 9 in the third). Of those runs, it doesn't specify how many were earned, but that doesn't matter. When you're in a closers role it doesn't matter if the runs are your fault or not, they're costly either way. Unrelated note, the most startling number I saw on this page was that Bush has pitched in the 8th or 9th inning THREE TIMES. I'm assuming those aren't as a reliever either. He's only made it past the 7th inning THREE TIMES IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER?
Bush is not the guy. The guy I'd turn to is...
Carlos Villanueva.Now, when I made this assertion earlier, I was only going off of what I saw Villanueva do and didn't bother to look at any statistics. When you watched Villanueva appear in relief last season, he pitched in a lot of tight spots, and routinely got out of them. He didn't seem to let anything get to him, he just looked like he had the make up of a closer. There is no way to really describe closers other than "they've got it or they don't" I believe Villanueva has it,
I decided to try and test my theory and looked at Mr. Villanueva's career splits as well.
As you can see, Villaueva has been most effective in his first 3 innings, giving up just 5 runs. Keep in mind these are his career numbers. He has given up 33 runs in innings 7-9, but 23 of those come in the 7th, NONE in the 9th inning. The number of runs allowed begin to go up in the 4th inning (something we're all well aware of) but not by much...not until the 7th at least.
I don't think Villanueva will ever be more than a 4th or 5th starter at best. Last year he showed he has the moxi to get through tough spots in relief. The numbers prove it too. I wouldn't hesitate to convert Villanueva into a closer, obviously this just became a lot tougher to do once Gallardo went down, but next season I am calling for Carlos to close games.
