Wednesday, August 27, 2008

MVP, MVP, MVP!


I really can't believe just how much Ryan Braun has flown under the radar when it comes to MVP talk.

Chase Utley, David Wright, Albert Pujols and to an extent Lance (non-gay spelling) Berkman are getting all the pub, with no one even mentioning Braun's name in passing.

ESPN's Rob Neyer recently did a chat where he debated who should win the NL MVP award, and only made cases for Utley, Wright, Pujols and...CC Sabathia. Here are some interesting nuggets from Neyer's chat:

Chris (Milwaukee, WI): What about Ryan Braun? His numbers are up there in every category with the leaders, he also seems to step up when in a big spot. The number of 0-2 home runs he has is outstanding!

Rob Neyer: Well, he'd have to come back quickly from his current injury *and* someone would have propagate some quick shorthand for his clutch performance. If you have a dark horse candidate like him, you've got to be able to make his case in about three seconds.


Here's the case in three seconds Rob, he's carried this team offensively this year, his numbers are equal to or better than Wright, Utley, Pujols and Berkman, his team has the second best record in the NL, he started the All-Star game and he's doing all of this in just his second year, after switching positions in the off season. Good enough?

Here's another one:

John (Watertown, SD): I don't know how you can make an argument that Braun would deserve the MVP over Chase Utley. Utley's OPS is almost identical, but he sports almost 30 points of OBP over Braun. This is while he is a better defender at a more difficult position. I don't see how you can argue that Braun is more valuable than Utley.

Rob Neyer: Right. That was my point. Braun does have a lot of big clutch hits this year, but unless they become a big part of the narrative it's not going to help his MVP candidacy. Which means he needs a few more big ones down the stretch.


Here's how I make the argument John, look at Utley and Brauny's numbers again, they're nearly identical. Matter of fact, as of this morning, Braun has better numbers than Utley in nearly all statistical categories (Utley has more walks and a higher OBP). Plus, Utley's numbers have been product of a monster March-May. Don't believe me, take a look.

While Utley Stormed out of the gates, Braun struggled but has come on strong since May. Voters are historic for their what have you done for me lately mentality. Couple that with all of the aspects brought up earlier (2nd best record in baseball, Braun offensively carrying this team at points, Brewers poised to make the playoffs) and the award should be Brauns. Neyer and John both point to defense. Is Chase Utley a better defender? Yes, I'll give them that, but Braun has by no means been a liability like he was last year. In an off-season's time he learned a new position and adjusted well. He hasn't been a superb defender, but he hasn't cost them out there, so I don't but the defensive argument for one minute.

Voters usually look for three things: Did the players team make the playoffs? Did the player have a milestone or record setting year? How did the player perform from August on?

Braun's team looks like they'll make the playoffs, Braun is keeping pace with his record setting rookie year, and so far he's performed well down the stretch. If the Brewers hold serve and win the wild card, finishing with the second best record in the NL, and Braun keeps this pace up, I don't see how he's not the MVP.

0 comments: